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500-year tree-ring reconstruction of Salween River streamflow related to the history of water supply in Southeast Asia

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A Correction to this article was published on 18 September 2019

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Abstract

The great rivers that flow from the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) affect billions of people in the downstream countries of Asia. Understanding of the hydrological variability of these rivers is still limited, however, because of the lack of long-term streamflow records. Tree-ring width chronologies from six sites are applied to reconstruct annual streamflow of the Salween River, the last remaining large free-flowing transboundary river draining the southern TP, and a critical water source for countries of Southeast Asia. Response function analysis shows that precipitation is the main factor limiting the radial growth of the sampled trees. Linear regression of annual (September–June) Salween River streamflow on the first principal component of tree-ring chronologies explains 53.4% of the streamflow variance, 1958–2011, and yields a reconstruction for the interval 1500–2011 CE. A tally of droughts and wet periods emphasizes the severity of droughts before the start of the gauged records, and a tendency toward wetter conditions in recent decades. Regional temperature is negatively associated with the reconstructed streamflow. Cold wet summers controlled by the Asian summer monsoon are responsible for an increasing trend in streamflow over the last decades. Reconstructed hydrological change is linked to the history of mainland Southeast Asia through the impact of water shortages on Burma society. In particular, prolonged periods of low flow of the Salween River coincide with the falls of the Toungoo Empires and the First Anglo-Burmese War. This tree-ring reconstruction provides a long-term perspective on hydrological changes in the Upper Salween River Basin that can give insight for sustainable water management on the TP and in Myanmar.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by NSFC (award #91547115), the National Key R&D Program of China (award #2016YFA0601600), NSFC (award #41601026), Science and Technology Planning Project of Yunnan Province, China (No. 2017FB073) and the National Youth Talent Support Program.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China

    Feng Chen, Daming He & Xian Luo

  2. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China

    Feng Chen, Huaming Shang, Yujiang Yuan & Shulong Yu

  3. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

    Irina Panyushkina & David Meko

  4. Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Jinbao Li

  5. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China

    Fahu Chen

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Chen, F., Shang, H., Panyushkina, I. et al. 500-year tree-ring reconstruction of Salween River streamflow related to the history of water supply in Southeast Asia. Clim Dyn 53, 6595–6607 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04948-1

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