Abstract
Future climate change will have severe impacts on the geographic distribution of species, likely leading to shifts in their suitable habitat and eventually to the extinction of some species whose distribution areas are restricted. However, some species may respond differently to climate change. In this study we model the current and future potential habitats of three Juniperus species with different population trends: J. jaliscana, J. monticola and J. pinchotii. Occurrence records were collected across their distribution, combined with environmental and topographical variables to generate a MaxEnt model of the potential distributions in the years 2050 and 2070. The most important environmental variables were precipitation of wettest quarter for J. jaliscana, maximum temperature of warmest month for J. monticola, and mean temperature of coldest quarter for J. pinchotii. Our results showed that the habitat suitability of these three Juniperus species decreased overall by more than 50% under the climate change scenarios. These findings contributed to a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecological distribution of these species and could inform decisions regarding to their conservation, and management, and sustainable use strategies, as well as to implement active ex situ conservation strategies.
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The authors confirm that data supporting findings in this study are available within the article (and/or) its supplementary materials. Interested readers to other materials should request them from the corresponding author (JERA). Supplementary Appendix A contained Table A1, Table A2 and Table A3.
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JERA thanks CONACyT and the Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales-Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México for support of his postdoctoral scholarship.
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JERA thanks CONACyT and the Instituto de Ciencias Agropecuarias y Rurales-Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México for support of his postdoctoral scholarship.
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JERA: conceptualized this study and drafted he original manuscript and conducted the formal data analyses. JERA and MPS: assisted in methodology and drafted the discussion. MPS and ARMC: validated the methodology and reviewed the manuscript. JERA, MPS and ARMC: reviewed and edited the manuscript. MPS and ARMC: supervised the entire work and reviewed the manuscript.
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Pérez-Suárez, M., Ramírez-Albores, J.E. & Martínez-Campos, Á.R. Predicting the impacts of climate change on potential suitability habitats of three Juniperus trees in Mexico. Plant Ecol 225, 37–51 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-023-01374-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-023-01374-6