Why MiG Fighter Jets Are Not The Answer To Ukraine's Problems

• The first NATO delivery of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine has been completed.
• The jets, while boosting Ukraine's air force numbers and replacing its losses, will not make a crucial difference to its capabilities.
• Upgrading the Ukrainian air force with Western-made fighter jets, such as the F-16, will be an inevitable conversation, according to experts.

The first four NATO-donated MiG-29 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine, Slovakia's defense ministry announced on Thursday.

"We as a country have written ourselves in capital letters in modern world history, which speak of timely help," Defense Minister Jaroslav Nad said. Yet even with NATO nations now crossing a "red line" with fighter jets, these aircraft still fail to meet Kyiv's loud demands for Western-made advanced jets such as F-16s.

Earlier this month, Ukraine's neighbors Poland and Slovakia committed a first tranche of MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine. Warsaw will send four of the Soviet-era fighter jets, while Bratislava has volunteered 13.

Eduard Heger, the prime minister of Slovakia, said the country would be "on the right side of history," adding that "promises must be kept."

While some judge the move to be an escalation of the conflict, the military advantages of additional MiG-29s are not a game-changer, experts have told Newsweek. The political consequences, however, may be.

"This is far more symbolic as a gesture than it is actually improving the ability of the Ukrainians to wage war in the air with the Russians," according to former British Air Commodore Andrew Curtis. While not a revolutionary move, it's one that experts argue could be banking on a domino effect of military aid.

MiG-29s Will Be 'Very Helpful' for Ukraine

But that is not to say the MiG-29 donations will not be welcomed. Far from it—there are numerous short-term benefits of sending Ukraine additional Soviet-era fighters.

Ahead of officially offering the jets, Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNN that Warsaw was "ready" to provide operational MiG-29 jets, adding that Ukrainian pilots would "be ready to use those planes instantly."

This is one of the real advantages of the MiG-29s, experts say. Ukraine has "pilots who are experienced in operating them who they can put into those airframes immediately," David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King's College London, U.K., told Newsweek.

And the timing corresponds to Ukraine's time-sensitive needs. "Receiving aircraft soon is also particularly urgent for Kyiv, given the likelihood of Ukrainian offensives in the spring and summer that would benefit from any added air support," James Black, assistant director of the Defence and Security research group at RAND Europe, told Newsweek.

"Ukraine is thus understandably eager to bolster its forces to increase the likelihood of a decisive military breakthrough in the near-term," he added.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in the days running up the announcement that NATO countries could soon furnish Ukraine with fighter jets, suggesting a timetable of the "coming four to six weeks."

Providing more MiGs for Ukraine is "certainly" beneficial, because it increases the amount of aircraft Ukraine can have in the air, but it also helps ease issues with maintenance and how quickly planes can be deployed, Black said.

"Essentially, they will be very helpful for prolonging Ukraine's ability to essentially keep doing what it's been doing for most of the war," Justin Bronk, senior research fellow in airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, U.K., told Newsweek.

The MiG-29s will help Ukraine keep up defensive fighter patrols, intercept missiles and drones, and launch attacks on Russian targets, he said. But there are no new capabilities offered by the MiGs—it is about replenishing losses and expanding current operations, Bronk added.

It's not known exactly how many aircraft Ukraine still has in its air force. It is estimated that it had between 20 and 36 MiG-29s in February 2022. Confirmed losses suggest it may have lost around 18 of these, but the precise figure is hard to pin down. Certainly, Kyiv has sustained "significant losses" through Russian counter-air operations, ground-based air defenses, and attacks on Ukraine's airbases, Black said.

"Any Western contribution of materiel to help replenish these losses would be significant," he added.

MiG-29s from Slovakia and Poland will replace Ukrainian stocks, but not quite on a like-for-like basis, former U.K. military officer Frank Ledwidge told Newsweek. Despite small differences between MiG-29 variants, they will enable Ukraine to continue successful air operations.

The MiG-29 is an easier aircraft to service than the F-16, and changing or patching up avionics is a simpler process in the less technologically advanced aircraft, experts say. It is also a more rugged jets with a hardier undercarriage, better suited to the dispersed operations and less reliable runways Ukrainian pilots often deal with. The ground crews and engineers are well-equipped to work with MiG-29s and help them to operate at full capacity, experts say.

These older fighter jets are "the right thing for Ukraine right now," Ledwidge said, "for the simple reason that Ukraine's aircrew and ground crew can work on these and use them."

The 'Fundamental Shift' of F-16s

The F-16 jets that Ukraine has long called for are unsuitable for these very reasons. Unlikely to cope well with any form of debris, the F-16 arriving in Ukraine would mark a "fundamental shift" not just in how sophisticated a platform Kyiv's pilots operate, but everything about the ecosystem it exists in, according to experts.

The F-16s, which would struggle with Ukraine's lack of smooth runways and their dispersed locations, would "suffer more in terms of wear and tear and potential accidents from being operated from rough surfaces compared to other jets," Bronk said. They would also likely be "limited to operating from exposed and well-known airfields," Curtis said. As such, they would be more vulnerable to Russian long-range missile strikes.

But the F-16s remain far superior aircraft to the MiG-29s, given that they are furnished with more advanced avionics, situational awareness for pilots, and designed with NATO-supplied weapons systems in mind.

Yet these capabilities and aircraft are not nearly as familiar to Ukrainian personnel, experts say.

They would need new training pipelines, not just for pilots, but for everyone involved in the process, Black said. Ground crews need high levels of specific training, and there are supply chains, maintenance and infrastructure considerations also in the mix, all of which take time to resolve, experts say.

Ultimately, giving Ukraine NATO-standard Western fighter jets does not mean they can leverage air power in the way Western countries do, Bronk said. A handful of F-16s would be a "significant upgrade" compared with the MiG-29, but not one that brings all elements of NATO airpower with it. Ukraine is currently able to operate MiG-29s at their full potential, but would not be able to do so for F-16s for a long time, and not without "considerable external help," Ledwidge said.

The Missile Problem

It is not just about how advanced an aircraft may be, however. Logistics and expertise also influence how effective these planes can be, not to mention the impact of air defenses.

Although Ukrainian aircraft have been up against superior Russian jets such as the Su-35, advanced fielded surface-to-air missiles prevent Moscow's forces from making full use of its later-generation fighters, experts argue.

"It may well be that for example, an Su-35 never gets into a dogfight with the MiG- 29 because it's shot down by a Patriot missile before it can do it," Curtis said. These Western-supplied systems have made for a more "level" playing field against the more advanced Russian jets, he added.

Brigadier General Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, told reporters on Tuesday that the Patriot systems would arrive in Ukraine on an "expedited timeline," providing Ukraine with the system as "quickly" as possible.

The Future of Ukraine's Air Force

The war may have forced conversations about Ukraine's airpower, but those discussions might have been inevitable anyway. Ukraine's ageing Soviet planes would always have needed replacing, Jordan said, once they ran out of spare parts and were no longer fit for flight. Before the war, the alternative option would have been the unpopular move of Kyiv looking to Moscow to replace its air force, he said.

There is a growing acknowledgement among experts that NATO countries will inevitably have to replace Ukraine's air force with aircraft such as F-16s, in order for Ukraine to have any operational aircraft, as well as weapons systems suitable for those aircraft.

The MiG-29s from Slovakia and Poland cannot be followed by further, numerous deliveries of these aircraft, simply because NATO does not have the stocks, experts say.

Although Slovakia and Poland are not the only countries with stockpiles of MiG-29s, the "large majority are unlikely to consent to any donations to Ukraine or swap with a NATO country," Black said. There is only a "small pool" of MiG-29s for Western countries to give, Jordan said, with the NATO nations holding onto these MiGs likely keen to replace them.

The promise of MiG-29s is more important as a political gesture than as a way of upgrading Ukraine's airpower. It shows "how NATO has stepped up to the plate," Curtis said.

Update 3/26/23 at 10.52 a.m. ET: This article was updated to adjust a comment from James Black.